Nadir olayların makroekonomisi üzerine üç deneme
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2022
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Yayıncı
Aksaray Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Nadir olaylar; doğal, beşerî veya bunların etkileşiminden kaynaklanan toplumların istikrarını tehdit edebilecek güçte ve yüksek düzeyde risk içeren olaylardır. Doğal felaketler, savaşlar darbeler ve pandemiler gibi örnekleriyle hemen her toplumun hafızasında yer eden nadir olayların makroekonomik etkilerine dair veriye dayalı analiz yapma ihtiyacı bu tezin motivasyon kaynağıdır. Buna bağlı olarak da tezin temel amacı önemine dair farkındalığın giderek arttığı nadir olayların makroekonomisine dikkat çekmek, ayrıca kaynağına göre farklı türdeki nadir olayların makroekonomik etkilerine dair literatüre ampirik katkı sağlamaktır. Tezde, nadir olayların söz konusu üç türü için de ampirik analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Teze nadir olayların makroekonomisine giriş olacak bir bölüm ile başlanılmış ve devamında, tezin ilk ampirik denemesinde, doğal felaketlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi 164 ülkelik bir örneklemde incelenmiş ve doğal felaketlerin ekonomik büyümeyi negatif etkilediğine dair bulgular elde edilmiştir. Tezin ikinci ampirik denemesinde askeri darbe ve darbe girişimlerinin ekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisi en az bir darbe girişimine maruz kalmış 85 ülkelik bir örneklem üzerinden incelenmiş ve darbelerin ekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisinin negatif olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca soğuk savaş sonrası dönemdeki darbelerin ekonomik performans üzerindeki etkilerinin soğuk savaş dönemine göre daha büyük olduğuna dair bulgular da elde edilmiştir. Tezin son ampirik denemesinde doğal ve beşerî süreçlerin etkileşiminden meydana gelen birer nadir olay olan pandemilerin iktisadi faaliyet üzerindeki etkisi COVID-19 örneği ve OECD örnekleminde incelenmiş ve pandemilerin iktisadi faaliyet üzerindeki etkilerinin negatif olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Üç ayrı ampirik analizin gerçekleştirildiği tezin sonunda araştırmacı ve politika yapıcılara yönelik önerilerde bulunulmuştur.
Rare events are extreme events with a high level of risk that may threaten the stability of societies, whether natural, human, or caused by their interaction. The need for a data-based analysis of the macroeconomic effects of rare events, such as natural disasters, wars, coups, and pandemics, which are in the memory of almost every society, is the motivation for this thesis. Accordingly, the main purpose of the thesis is to draw attention to the macroeconomics of rare events, the importance of which is gradually increasing, and to contribute empirically to the macroeconomic effects of different types of rare events, depending on their source. In the thesis, empirical analyzes were carried out for all three types of rare events. The thesis started with a chapter that will introduce the macroeconomics of rare events, and then, in the first empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of natural disasters on economic growth was examined in a sample of 164 countries and findings were obtained regarding the negative effects of natural disasters on economic growth. In the second empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of military coups and coup attempts on economic performance was examined in a sample of 85 countries that were exposed to at least one coup attempt, and it was found that the impact of coups on economic performance was negative. In addition, findings have been obtained that the effects of the coups in the post-cold war period on economic performance are greater than in the cold war period. In the last empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of pandemics, which are rare events that occur from the interaction of natural and human processes, on economic activity was examined for the COVID-19 pandemic in the OECD sample, and it was found that the effects of pandemics on economic activity were negative. At the end of the thesis, in which three separate empirical analyzes were carried out, suggestions were made for researchers and policymakers.
Rare events are extreme events with a high level of risk that may threaten the stability of societies, whether natural, human, or caused by their interaction. The need for a data-based analysis of the macroeconomic effects of rare events, such as natural disasters, wars, coups, and pandemics, which are in the memory of almost every society, is the motivation for this thesis. Accordingly, the main purpose of the thesis is to draw attention to the macroeconomics of rare events, the importance of which is gradually increasing, and to contribute empirically to the macroeconomic effects of different types of rare events, depending on their source. In the thesis, empirical analyzes were carried out for all three types of rare events. The thesis started with a chapter that will introduce the macroeconomics of rare events, and then, in the first empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of natural disasters on economic growth was examined in a sample of 164 countries and findings were obtained regarding the negative effects of natural disasters on economic growth. In the second empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of military coups and coup attempts on economic performance was examined in a sample of 85 countries that were exposed to at least one coup attempt, and it was found that the impact of coups on economic performance was negative. In addition, findings have been obtained that the effects of the coups in the post-cold war period on economic performance are greater than in the cold war period. In the last empirical essay of the thesis, the effect of pandemics, which are rare events that occur from the interaction of natural and human processes, on economic activity was examined for the COVID-19 pandemic in the OECD sample, and it was found that the effects of pandemics on economic activity were negative. At the end of the thesis, in which three separate empirical analyzes were carried out, suggestions were made for researchers and policymakers.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Veri Ekonometrisi, Kalkınma İktisadı, Economic Growth, Panel Data Econometrics, Development Economics
