Meslek seçimlerinin Cobweb ve rasyonel beklentiler modelleri çerçevesinde incelenmesi: Öğretmen işgücü piyasası üzerine bir analiz
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2022
Yazarlar
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Yayıncı
Aksaray Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Türkiye işgücü piyasasında son yıllarda yükseköğretim mezunları arasındaki işsizlik oranı giderek artış göstermektedir. Özellikle 2000'li yılların başında cazip görülen öğretmenlik mesleği, son yıllarda kronik bir işsizlik sorunu ile karşı karşıyadır. Bu sorunlar doğrultusunda çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'de öğretmen adaylarının meslek seçim davranışının Cobweb ve Rasyonel Beklentiler Teorileri ile açıklanabilirliğinin incelenmesidir. Cobweb Teorisine dayalı meslek seçim modelinde, öğrencilerin meslek seçiminde bulunurken yalnızca bir önceki döneme ait işgücü piyasası koşullarını dikkate aldıkları (miyopik beklentiler) hipotezi sınanmaktadır. Rasyonel Beklentiler Teorisine dayanan meslek seçim modelinde ise halihazırda bir öğretmenlik programını tercih etmiş, eğitimini tamamladıktan sonra programdan mezun olan öğretmen adaylarının öngörüleri ile gerçekleşen işgücü piyasası dinamiklerinin ne düzeyde tutarlı olduğu incelenmektedir. Panel veri setinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmanın yatay kesit birimleri 23 öğretmenlik branşından, zaman boyutu ise 1998-2020 dönemi yıllık verilerinden oluşmaktadır. Cobweb Teorisine dayanan meslek seçim modeli PMG ve kantil regresyon yöntemleri ile tahmin edilmiş, veri setinin normal dağılmaması, dışa düşen değerlerin varlığı nedeni ile kantil regresyon tahmincisinden elde edilen sonuçlar dikkate alınmıştır. Rasyonel Beklentiler Teorisine dayanan meslek seçim modeli ise kantil regresyon yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre öğrencilerin kısmen rasyonel davranış sergilediği, ancak öğrencilerin öngörüleri ile gerçekleşen işgücü piyasası koşullarının tamamen tutarlı olmadığı gözlenmiştir. Buna karşın miyopik beklentilere ilişkin bulguların daha güçlü olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak öğrenciler bir öğretmenlik programına yerleşirken (t dönemi), mezun olacakları (t+4) dönemdeki işgücü piyasası koşullarının, seçimde bulundukları yıldan bir önceki döneme (t-1) ait koşullar ile aynı olacağı beklentisi içerisindedir.
In the Turkish labor market, the unemployment rate among higher education graduates has been increasing in recent years. Teaching, which was seen as an attractive profession, especially in the early 2000s, has been faced with a chronic unemployment problem in recent years. In line with these problems, the aim of the study is to examine the explainability of teacher candidates' career choice behavior in Turkey with Cobweb and Rational Expectations Theories. In the career choice model based on the Cobweb Theory, the hypothesis is that students only consider conditions of the previous period of the labor market when choosing a career. In the career choice model based on the Rational Expectation Theory, it is examined to what extent the labor market dynamics are consistent with the predictions of the teacher candidates who have already chosen a teaching program and graduated. In this study, we used panel data which cross-sectional units consist of 23 teaching branches, and the time dimension consists of 1998-2020 annual data. Occupational choice model based on the Cobweb Theory was estimated by PMG and quantile regression methods. Due to the non-normal distribution of the data set and the presence of outlier values, the results obtained from quantile regression estimator were taken as reference. Occupational choice model based on the Rational Expectation Theory was estimated by the quantile regression method. According to the findings, it was observed that the students exhibited partially rational behavior, but the predictions of the students and the actual labor market conditions were not completely consistent. On the other hand, it has been determined that the myopic (previous period observation) expectations are stronger. As a result, students choosing a teaching program (in t period), they expect that the labor market conditions in the period they will graduate (t+4) will be same as the conditions of the previous period (t-1) from the year they entered the university.
In the Turkish labor market, the unemployment rate among higher education graduates has been increasing in recent years. Teaching, which was seen as an attractive profession, especially in the early 2000s, has been faced with a chronic unemployment problem in recent years. In line with these problems, the aim of the study is to examine the explainability of teacher candidates' career choice behavior in Turkey with Cobweb and Rational Expectations Theories. In the career choice model based on the Cobweb Theory, the hypothesis is that students only consider conditions of the previous period of the labor market when choosing a career. In the career choice model based on the Rational Expectation Theory, it is examined to what extent the labor market dynamics are consistent with the predictions of the teacher candidates who have already chosen a teaching program and graduated. In this study, we used panel data which cross-sectional units consist of 23 teaching branches, and the time dimension consists of 1998-2020 annual data. Occupational choice model based on the Cobweb Theory was estimated by PMG and quantile regression methods. Due to the non-normal distribution of the data set and the presence of outlier values, the results obtained from quantile regression estimator were taken as reference. Occupational choice model based on the Rational Expectation Theory was estimated by the quantile regression method. According to the findings, it was observed that the students exhibited partially rational behavior, but the predictions of the students and the actual labor market conditions were not completely consistent. On the other hand, it has been determined that the myopic (previous period observation) expectations are stronger. As a result, students choosing a teaching program (in t period), they expect that the labor market conditions in the period they will graduate (t+4) will be same as the conditions of the previous period (t-1) from the year they entered the university.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Meslek Seçimi, Öğretmen İşgücü Piyasası, Cobweb Teorisi, Rasyonel Beklentiler Teorisi, Occupational Choice, Teacher Labor Market, Cobweb Theory, Rational Expectations Theory
