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Öğe Development of Upper Euphrates Basin hydro-economic model and hydropower generation optimization(IWA Publishing, 2023) Aytaç, Ayça; Tuna, M. Cihat; Doğan, Mustafa ŞahinHydro-economic optimization models are common in hydropower reservoir modeling to aid system operators and planners. In these models, operations are driven by the economic value and constrained by the availability of water. The objective is to either minimize total costs or maximize total benefits. In this study, a hydro-economic optimization model for the integrated reservoir system of the Upper Euphrate s Basin, with major tributaries providing water flow to the Euphrates River, is introduced. These model the 10 large-scale reservoirs of the basin with a total installed capacity of 3,255 MW. Water management and hydropower decision-making operations are evaluated with a piecewise linear programming algorithm in monthly time steps using a 45-year historical hydrology between 1971 and 2016. The model aims to maximize hydropower revenue over a long-term time horizon with energy prices varying by month. Reservoir storage and turbine release decisions are optimized for multiple hydropower plants connected in serial or parallel. Hydropower generation, revenue, reservoir storage, capacity ratios and generation reliability results are analyzed. Results show that these hydropower plants generate about 9,481 Gigawatt hour (GWh) of energy with an average turbine capacit y use of 36% and obtain a revenue of 620 million $ per year.Öğe Effects of reducing long-term groundwater overdraft in uluova micro-basin(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2025) Şekerci, Kürşat; Tuna, M. Cihat; Doğan, Mustafa ŞahinRecently, groundwater use has increased significantly in response to limited surface water availability in arid and semi-arid regions. This trend has led to increasing concerns about declining groundwater levels and the risk of overdraft. For the above reasons, a hydroeconomic model was developed in this study to evaluate various management scenarios aimed at mitigating the negative impacts of groundwater overdraft. The Uluhem hydroeconomic model focuses on a total of six different water management operations with different physical constraints. The first scenario is a baseline water operation with groundwater pumping (with overdraft), while the next four scenarios cover four different water management operations where groundwater pumping is restricted at different rates (without overdraft). The sixth and final scenario investigates the installation of a solar-powered system to pump water from a nearby surface water reservoir. This last scenario seeks a potential solution to completely eliminate the agricultural water scarcity and associated scarcity costs arising from the first five scenarios. With the Uluhem model, the water deliveries, water scarcity and economic impacts of these six different management scenarios are analyzed. The findings show that the four different scenarios in which groundwater pumping is restricted contribute positively to the groundwater reservoir but increase water scarcity. The solar power plant installation scenario, on the other hand, offers a promising and sustainable solution that not only effectively addresses water scarcity but also eliminates the associated costs. The study investigates the factors contributing to groundwater overdraft and seeks a sustainable solution to current groundwater utilization. The results emphasize the urgent need for effective and sustainable water management strategies to prevent groundwater overdraft. Overall, the study provides valuable insights into groundwater overdraft problems in the Uluova micro-basin and emphasizes the importance of adopting long-term, sustainable groundwater management practices.Öğe Energy-based hydro-economic modeling of climate change effects on the Upper Euphrates Basin(IWA Publishing, 2024) Aytaç, Ayça; Doğan, Mustafa Şahin; Tuna, M. CihatClimate change and global warming are expected to affect water resources management and planning, requiring adaptations to changing conditions. Therefore, it is very important, especially for decision-makers, to identify demand deficits due to less water availability with climate change that may occur in the existing water supply system in advance. FEHEM, a hydroeconomic optimization model of the integrated reservoir system of the Upper Euphrates Basin, which is the largest and main basin providing water flow to the Euphrates River, is developed. Using a 45-year historical hydrological dataset, water management and hydroelectric operations are evaluated with a linear programming model at monthly time steps. The effects of climate change on the Upper Euphrates Basin are evaluated under low and high carbon emission scenarios. According to the average of the different climate scenarios studied in the model, the average decrease in flows is 37.5%. With climate change, peak flows will occur about 1–2 months earlier on average. As a result of these hydrological changes, the total amount of energy production in the basin will decrease by about 54% and energy revenue by the same percentage.Öğe Using an integrated hydro-economic model to determine the drought and energy relationship in the Upper Euphrates Basin(IWA Publishing, 2024) Aytaç, Ayça; Tuna, M. Cihat; Dogan, Mustafa ŞahinDecreasing precipitation in the Upper Euphrates Basin and the negative impact of climate change directly affect water resources and hydroelectricity generation in the basin. This basin, which contains the largest dams in terms of hydroelectricity generation potential, requires research studies to assess and characterize drought for risk prevention and mitigation applicable to water resources management. To better assess drought in the upper Euphrates Basin due to recent warming, FEHEM is developed, a hydro-economic optimization model of the integrated reservoir system of the Upper Euphrates Basin. Using a historical hydrological dataset, water management and hydroelectric operations are evaluated with a linear programming model at monthly time steps. This paper uses two different drought indices: (1) the standardized precipitation index, which is based on precipitation alone; and (2) the reconnaissance drought index, which takes into account both evaporation and precipitation. These indices were used to evaluate the impact of temporal drought characteristics in the Upper Euphrates Basin on the hydropower generation of 10 dams with a total installed capacity of over 50 MW in the basin, based on 45 years of precipitation data from more than a hundred measuring stations in the basin.
