Yazar "Tiwari, Aviral Kumar" seçeneğine göre listele

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    Testing the inflation rates in MENA countries: Evidence from quantile regression approach and seasonal unit root test
    (ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2017) Bolat, Süleyman; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Kyophilavong, Phouphet
    We investigate the dynamic behavior and seasonal property (with regime shift) of inflation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Our investigation uses the quantile regression approach developed by Koenker and Xiao (2004) and the newly developed seasonal unit root test of Narayan and Popp (2011) respectively. Our empirical results show that the inflation rates are not mean-reverting, and they show the asymmetries in their dynamic adjustment. Further, we find a seasonal unit root does not exist in the inflation rate for any country in this study. This finding implies that shocks do not have lasting effects on the inflation rate.
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    The behaviour of US and UK public debt: Further evidence based on time varying parameters
    (Transition Academia Press, 2016) Bolat, Süleyman; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Mutascu, Mihai
    The paper investigates whether US and UK have followed sustainable debt policies during the period 1970-2012, by exploring the reaction of the primary surplus as percentage of GDP to variations in the debt to GDP ratio, as a powerful test. The main results reveal that the coefficient for UK is negative and significant, while for the US, we are unable to find a clear-cut evidence of the sustainability of public debt as the coefficient is also negative, but insignificant. In the case of the UK, the outputs reveal that government did not raise the primary surplus as the government debt increased rather reduced it and this reduction has been significant. On the other hand, the significance of the reaction coefficient demonstrates that the reaction of the primary surplus to increases in public debt varies over time. All these evidences allow us to appreciate that the fiscal policy in the UK is not sustainable in the sense of satisfying of intertemporal budgetary constrain. © 2016, Transition Academia Press. All rights reserved.