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    Remote Sensing-Enabled Urban Growth Simulation Overlaid with AHP-GIS-Based Urban Land Suitability for Potential Development in Mersin Metropolitan Area, Türkiye
    (Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI), 2024) Şahin, Ezgi; İban, Muzaffer Can; Bilgilioğlu, Süleyman Sefa
    This study delves into the integration of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques to identify suitable areas for urban development in six districts within the Mersin Metropolitan Area of Turkey. The specific aim is to generate an urban land use suitability map, in order to facilitate informed decision-making for urban development. Drawing on open Landsat satellite imagery and employing the random forest (RF) algorithm, the study spans a fifteen-year period, over which land use/land cover (LULC) changes are measured. Furthermore, a novel approach is introduced by incorporating the urban land use suitability map into an urban growth simulation model developed using a logistic regression (LR) algorithm. This simulation forecasts urban growth up to 2027, enabling planners to evaluate potential development areas against suitability criteria. Findings reveal spatial patterns of land suitability and projected urban growth, aiding decision-makers in selecting optimal areas for development while preserving ecological integrity. Notably, the study emphasizes the importance of considering various factors such as topography, accessibility, soil capability, and geology in urban planning processes. The results showcase significant proportions of the study area as being moderately to highly suitable for urban development, alongside notable shifts in LULC classes over the years. Additionally, the overlay analysis of simulated urban growth and land suitability maps highlights areas with contrasting suitability levels, offering valuable insights for sustainable urban growth strategies. By overlaying the urban land suitability map with a simulated LULC map for 2027, it is revealed that 2247.3 hectares of potential new urbanization areas demonstrate very high suitability for settlement, while 7440.12 hectares exhibit very low suitability. By providing a comprehensive framework for assessing urban land suitability and projecting future growth, this research offers practical implications for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders involved in Mersin’s development trajectory, ultimately fostering more sustainable and resilient urban landscapes.
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    The green divide and heat exposure: urban transformation projects in istanbul
    (Frontiers Media SA, 2023) Yazar, Mahir; Daloğlu Çetinkaya, İrem; İban, Muzaffer Can; Bilgilioğlu, Süleyman Sefa
    Extreme heat events are happening more frequently and with greater severity, causing significant negative consequences, especially for vulnerable urban populations around the globe. Heat stress is even more common in cities with dense and irregular planning and lacking urban blue-green infrastructures. This study investigates the greening and cooling effects of five selected urban transformation projects and their surrounding areas (within a 10-min walking distance) in Istanbul from 2013 to 2021, with a focus on environmental justice and climate adaptation planning perspectives. By employing temporal analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) values derived from Landsat data sets to detect changes in these five selected urban transformation projects in the megacity of Turkiye, Istanbul, this study finds that the distribution of green infrastructures (e.g., tree canopy) is only limited to project sites of long-running and state-supported urban transformation projects in Istanbul. Consequently, the unequal distribution of green infrastructures creates cooling effects only for the locals residing in the new residential projects. However, the surrounding areas have less urban green infrastructure and are exposed more to the urban heat over time. Urban development policies and planning highly contribute to increasing the climate vulnerabilities among those who do not benefit from the recently developed residential units in Istanbul. Such a trend can affect adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities and redress environmental injustices in urban planning in the megacity of Istanbul.